SAN ANTONIO — After more than three decades of Republican dominance, Democrats in Texas see a rare chance to break through in November’s midterm elections, as voter anger over immigration raids and the cost-of-living tests US President Donald Trump’s support.

No Democrat has won statewide office in the conservative southern state since 1994, and Trump carried Texas by nearly 14 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.

But with a US Senate seat and the governorship at stake on November 3, recent polls suggest Republicans face an unusually competitive challenge.

At the forefront is James Talarico, a 37-year-old former teacher and state lawmaker whose blend of Christian faith, economic populism and appeals for political unity has helped make the Senate race one of the country’s most closely watched.

A University of Texas poll released this week put Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general and a staunch Trump ally, by 50 per cent to 47 per cent — a lead within the survey’s margin of error.

A separate UMass Lowell poll found the two candidates tied.

A Presbyterian seminarian, Talarico has sought to attract independents and Republicans disillusioned with Trump, arguing that Texans have more in common than the country’s increasingly bitter political divisions suggest.